Ed Murray (D)
Term limited in 2015
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 24,385 (76%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 7,792 (24%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 20,799 (65%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 11,014 (35%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 11,551 (25%)
John Kerry (D) 33,644 (74%)
Others 421 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 11,785 (27%)
Chris John (D) 14,198 (33%)
Others 17,590 (40%)

2006 New Orleans Mayor Runoff
Mitch Landrieu (D) 10,724 (52%)
Ray Nagin (D) 9,754 (48%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 3,206 (44%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 2,470 (34%)
Mike Francis (R) 395 (6%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 546 (8%)
Others 609 (8%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 5,861 (37%)
Walter Boasso (D) 3,053 (19%)
John Georges (I) 5,694 (36%)
Foster Campbell (D) 1,110 (7%)
Others 223 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 7,133 (49%)
Mike Strain (R) 5,275 (36%)
Wayne Carter (R) 1,477 (10%)
Don Johnson (R) 707 (5%)

Senate District 4 can be considered the “Mid-city district.” It encompasses a rectangular shaped section of New Orleans whose approximate boundaries are Lake Pontchartrain, Elysian Fields, the Mississippi River, Canal Street, Airline Highway, and the 17th Avenue Canal which is the border between Orleans and Jefferson Parishes. It is a racially and economically mixed district that includes the housing projects near downtown, the racially mixed precincts of Gentilly, affluent areas near the lake, middle income areas of Lakeview, and the bohemian neighborhoods of the French Quarter and adjacent Marigny.

While there is economic and racial diversity in the district, the district has a 60% African-American voting majority. This is a slight increase from 59% several years ago, and is due to voter losses in Lakeview and racial changes in Gentilly. Overall, the district has lost a whopping 8% of its voter population since 2003 – some Lakeview precincts have lost nearly 40% of their voters over a four year period. Only the St. Bernars/Plaquemines-based 1st district has lost a larger proportion of its voters thanks to Katrina.

Politically, the district is solidly Democratic, due to a combination of the African-American majority and white liberals living in Midcity, the French Quarter, and Marigny. Since the African-American neighborhoods cast 67% of the vote and the white liberal neighborhoods another 17%, this 84% “super majority” easily offsets any Republican margins from the affluent neighborhoods near the Lakefront and Lakeview. Accordingly, Democrats can count on about 75% of the vote in most contested statewide elections. Bobby Jindal was able to cut into the African-American and white liberal vote in 2003, but still only received 35% of the vote. And in 2007, lowered African-American turnout and divided Democratic opposition enabled him to carry this district by a narrow 37-36% plurality. Had he run against a single Democratic opponent, the district would have surely voted overwhelmingly Democratic.

There has been some turnover in the district’s state Senate representation, as three of its recent occupants have moved on (or attempted to move on) to other offices. Ben Bagert represented the area for two terms from 1984 to 1992. In 1989, he switched to the Republican Party as part of an abortive 1990 U.S. Senate candidacy, and in 1991, he vacated the seat to run for Attorney General and lost in a landslide to Richard Ieyoub – the same November 1991 landslide that elected Edwin Edwards and several other Democrats at the top of the statewide ticket. He was succeeded by African-American Democrat Marc Morial (the son of the late Mayor of New Orleans), who was the beneficiary of the 1991 reapportionment which reconfigured the district to majority African-American. In his first race, he was elected in the primary with 51% of the vote. Sen. Morial’s tenure was brief, as he was elected Mayor of New Orleans in 1994, before his term had expired. Another African-American Democrat, state Representative Paulette Irons, was elected in the runoff with 56% of the vote, was overwhelmingly re-elected in 1995, unopposed in 1999, and was comfortably re-elected in 2003. She resigned in 2004 upon her election to a district judgeship, and was succeeded in the primary by the same state Rep. Ed Murray she defeated in the 1994 runoff. This time, Murray was elected in the primary with 86% of the vote.

Senator Murray is allowed to seek re-election to two more full terms after 2007 and was re-elected with a slightly reduced but still overwhelming 68% of the vote.

Hurricane Katrina had a major impact here, as the 17th and London Avenue Canal breaches were within the confines of the district, and caused extensive flooding. Overall, the district has seen a loss of over 7,200 voters (the second highest loss of any state Senate district), but the effects have varied from precinct to precinct. The “liberal” neighborhoods of the French Quarter, Marigny, and Mid-city actually have lost about 5% of their voter population. The African-American neighborhoods have lost about 10% of their population. Lakeview, however, has lost 22% of its population since 2003. The political effect of these changes is favorable to Democrats in the long term, particularly white liberal Democrats, who will have more of an influence over the electorate in the future.

What do we project the 2010 population to be for Senate District 4? In the mayor’s runoff held earlier this year, about 20,500 voted in person, while 6,400 (or 24%) absentee voted. Since this was a high-profile race that garnered national attention, the 26,900 turnout suggests a current or future electorate of about 35,900. Since there are currently about 69,500 registered voters in the district, we project that the district has lost about 49% of its population (the difference between the 65,900 on the voter registration rolls and the 35,900 we think are still active voters). Furthermore, the election results from the 2006 Mayor’s race suggest a current African-American voter influence of 48% (as opposed to 60% on the voter rolls). While this reduced African-American influence would seem to hurt the Democrats, the white liberal vote in Mid-city, French Quarter, and Marigny will keep the district securely in the Democratic column.