Derrick Shepherd (D)
Term limited in 2015
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 24,782 (83%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 5,179 (17%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 22,795 (73%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 8,421 (27%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 9,145 (21%)
John Kerry (D) 34,648 (78%)
Others 353 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 8,773 (21%)
Chris John (D) 16,046 (38%)
Others 17,486 (41%)

2006 New Orleans Mayor Runoff (Orleans Parish portion)
Mitch Landrieu (D) 5,920 (43%)
Ray Nagin (D) 7,785 (57%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 1,932 (26%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 3,509 (47%)
Mike Francis (R) 395 (5%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 1,053 (14%)
Others 566 (8%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 4,935 (30%)
Walter Boasso (D) 3,328 (20%)
John Georges (I) 6,615 (40%)
Foster Campbell (D) 1,245 (8%)
Others 263 (2%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 9,016 (60%)
Mike Strain (R) 3,694 (25%)
Wayne Carter (R) 1,528 (10%)
Don Johnson (R) 746 (5%)

Senate District 3 is a meandering district that includes parts of Orleans Parish and the Westbank of Jefferson Parish. It begins in the town of Marrero, then includes a string of precincts along the Mississippi River up to the Algiers ferry landing. It then crosses the Mississippi River into New Orleans. In New Orleans, it includes a swath of territory between Elysian Fields and the Industrial Canal all the way up to the Lakefront.

Demographically, the district has a solid (66%) African-American majority, which is a slight increase from 65% several years ago. The Jefferson Parish precincts have a narrow (56%) African-American majority and cast 29% of the district vote. A solid majority of the vote, however, is cast in Orleans Parish, and while it is heavily (71%) African-American, there are white majority neighborhoods in the French Quarter, Bywater, Marigny and the Lakeshore. Overall, the district has lost 4% of its population since 2003, with the losses coming entirely from the Orleans Parish precincts.

In contested elections, the African-American majority, blue collar voters in the Westbank, and white liberals in New Orleans join together to give huge margins of support to Democratic candidates, with Republicans typically getting about 17-21% of the vote. Bobby Jindal did receive 27% of the vote in the 2003 gubernatorial runoff, but that was because Mayor Ray Nagin’s support likely gave Jindal an entrée into the African-American community in New Orleans. Though Jindal upped his percentage to 30% in his successful 2007 run for governor, this was due to his improved showing in the Westbank from lower African-American turnout.

The district has had stable representation in the state Senate for years. African-American Democrat Dennis Bagneris was elected in 1983 and served until he resigned in 1999 upon his election to the state Appeals Court. During his tenure, he was never opposed for re-election. He was succeeded in a special election by Lambert Boissiere. After his initial 55% victory, he was unopposed in 1999 and was re-elected with 72% of the vote in 2003. He resigned in 2005 to take a Constable’s position in New Orleans. A crowded field sought to succeed him. The surprise winner was state Representative Derrick Shepherd from the Westbank town of Marrero, whose 51% victory in the primary was accomplished by receiving a whopping 89% of the vote in Jefferson Parish, while getting a respectable 33% of the vote in New Orleans.

Though Sen. Shepherd is not term-limited until 2015, he and 11 other candidates challenged indicted Congressman William Jefferson in 2006. He finished third in the race with 18%. Within his state Senate district, he ran second with 23% of the vote, garnering 31% support in Jefferson and 11% in Orleans. However, he was still re-elected in 2007 with an impressive 61% of the vote, receiving similar percentages in both parishes.

The effects of Hurricane Katrina varied throughout the district. While the Westbank (which largely escaped the destructive flooding that inundated most of New Orleans) and New Orleans both lost voters overall, there were areas in New Orleans (French Quarter, Marigny, and Bywater) that escaped flooding and have seen gains of up to 6%. However, there are areas that have seen as much as 32% of their voters leave since Katrina.

What do we project the 2010 population to be for Senate District 3? In the mayor’s runoff held earlier this year in the Orleans Parish portion, about 13,700 voted in person, while 5,100 (or 27%) absentee voted. Since this was a high-profile race that garnered national attention, the 18,800 turnout suggests a current or future electorate of about 25,100 in Orleans Parish. Since the Orleans Parish portion contains about 49,200 registered voters in the district, we project that the Orleans Parish portion of the district has lost about 50% of its population (the difference between the 49,200 on the voter registration rolls from Orleans Parish and the 25,100 we think are still active voters). Districtwide, we think this would translate to an approximate loss of 35% of the district’s vote, since we believe there has been little population change in Jefferson Parish.