Don “Doc” Hines (D)
Term limited in 2007
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 16,377 (54%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 14,000 (46%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 23,170 (69%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 10,626 (31%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 24,795 (56%)
John Kerry (D) 18,953 (43%)
Others 761 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 17,585 (42%)
Chris John (D) 18,192 (43%)
Others 6,549 (15%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 3,730 (18%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 6,481 (31%)
Mike Francis (R) 6,636 (32%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 1,891 (9%)
Others 2,167 (10%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 16,718 (42%)
Walter Boasso (D) 11,348 (29%)
John Georges (I) 4,616 (12%)
Foster Campbell (D) 5,755 (14%)
Others 1,364 (3%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 19,234 (52%)
Mike Strain (R) 12,537 (34%)
Wayne Carter (R) 2,366 (6%)
Don Johnson (R) 2,609 (7%)

In general, the “line of demarcation” between North and South Louisiana has been described by John Maginnis as “anything beyond a 30 minute drive above U.S. 190.” Senate District 28 straddles that line between North and South Louisiana. It contains the areas of Avoyelles south of the Red River that are definitely “Cajun.” Its portions of St. Landry Parish (Eunice, Melville, Krotz Springs, parts of Port Barre) are also predominately South Louisiana Catholic. The district also contains all of Allen and Evangeline Parishes. While Allen Parish is North Louisiana Protestant, Evangeline Parish is mostly Catholic, except for the northern fringes around Pine Prairie and Turkey Creek.

Overall, the district is best described as a “swing district.” It normally supports Democrats in contested races and was a base of support of former Governor Edwards (who grew up in the northern part of the district) for years. Its 54% support for Mary Landrieu and 69% support for Kathleen Blanco were critical for their victories, and it provided the winning margin for Rodney Alexander in his initial election to Congress as a Democrat in 2002.

However, the district will support Republicans if the Democratic candidate is too liberal. President Bush was supported by a healthy 56-43% margin last year (about his statewide average), and its support of current and former Congressmen like Clyde Holloway and Charles Boustany have played an important part of their initial victory margins. Even though it supported Chris John in his unsuccessful Senate race last year, David Vitter did come within 300 votes of a plurality here.

Demographically, District 28 has a moderate (23%) African-American population, which has remained steady throughout the decade. The district’s count of registered voters has increased at slightly less than the statewide rate since 2003. This steadiness has also carried over to its Senate representation. From 1976 to 1992, Democrat John Saunders of Evangeline Parish was its senator, and was routinely re-elected with huge margins. He resigned in 1992 to take a seat on the state appeals court. Succeeding him was Democrat Don “Doc” Hines of Bunkie (a town in Avoyelles Parish). Hines has had little trouble retaining his seat – after his 58% victory in the 1993 runoff, he was re-elected with 65% in 1995, and has been unopposed since then.

Though he is term limited in 2007, he is serving his last term as Governor Blanco’s choice for Senate President. We rate this open seat race as a “Democratic hold” in 2007. The local Democratic dominance in all four parishes helps keep this district in the Democratic column. In fact, only three Senate districts in New Orleans (all with an African-American majority) have a lower percentage of registered Republicans. Plus, the relatively low (23%) African-American voting base is just enough to provide a good head start for a populist Democrat, but is not enough for a more liberal candidate to sneak into the runoff against a Republican. Three Democrats are running: Democratic state representative Eric LaFleur, Sen. Hines’ 23 year old grandson Donald Newton, and Avoyelles Parish Sheriff Bill Belt, who was recently indicted.