Ann Duplessis (D)
Term limited in 2015
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 25,880 (90%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 2,808 (10%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 23,980 (79%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 6,240 (21%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 5,217 (13%)
John Kerry (D) 36,427 (87%)
Others 194 (0%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 4,775 (12%)
Chris John (D) 17,994 (45%)
Others 17,225 (43%)

2006 New Orleans Mayor Runoff
Mitch Landrieu (D) 4,389 (31%)
Ray Nagin (D) 9,993 (69%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 493 (16%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 1,978 (64%)
Mike Francis (R) 109 (4%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 266 (9%)
Others 232 (7%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 2,080 (18%)
Walter Boasso (D) 2,704 (23%)
John Georges (I) 5,678 (49%)
Foster Campbell (D) 1,040 (9%)
Others 174 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 7,572 (72%)
Mike Strain (R) 1,228 (12%)
Wayne Carter (R) 860 (8%)
Don Johnson (R) 852 (8%)

New Orleans East is a section of New Orleans East of the Industrial Canal that is a mixture of middle class subdivisions, industry, and miles of swampland. Senate District 2 includes most of this area, as well as an area near the junction of the Industrial Canal and the Mississippi River known as the “Lower 9th Ward.”.

Demographically, the district has a solid (86%) African-American majority, which is up from 84% of the vote a few years ago. In fact, this state Senate district is one of the few parts of New Orleans to have a steadily increasing African-American voting population. It would be a mistake, however, to consider this district an inner-city district, because while the district includes lower-income neighborhoods in the Lower 9th Ward, it also includes middle to upper middle income neighborhoods along I-10. And in a few scattered New Orleans East precincts (particularly east of Paris Road/I-510), there are still a significant number of white (and lately Vietnamese) voters.

Despite the variety in income levels in the district, the district solidly prefers Democrats in contested races, with Republicans only getting about 10% support district-wide. It is worth noting, however, that Ray Nagin’s endorsement of Bobby Jindal’s candidacy actually helped him get 21% of the vote here (although without this support in 2007, Jindal slipped to 18% of the vote). Overall, the district lost 6% of its voters since 2003 thanks to the major flood damage inflicted by Katrina’s storm surge and levee breaks, with most areas seeing up to 12 feet of water. And in the case of the Lower 9th Ward, flooding occurred again during Hurricane Rita.

Originally, this district was a white majority district, but racial changes in New Orleans East resulted in the 1985 election of the district’s first African-American state Senator, Jon Johnson, in an open seat situation. After being unopposed in his 1987 and 1991 races, however, he was held to 54% of the vote in the 1995 primary. In 1999, he was forced into a runoff and again received 54%. Then after leading in the 2003 primary 49-36%, he lost the runoff 53-47% to another African-American, Ann Duplessis. In the 2003 runoff, Sen. Johnson scored an impressive 62% in the Lower 9th Ward and even held Duplessis to 53% of the vote in the “far east” precincts. The key to Sen. Duplessis’ victory, however, was her strong 57% of the vote in the New Orleans East precincts.

Senator Duplessis is allowed to serve two more terms. While the district’s demographics lead us to rate this seat as a “Democratic hold”, the district’s recent dissatisfaction with its incumbents (three incumbent legislators in the area were defeated in 2003) means that Sen. Duplessis can’t take her re-election for granted. Jon Johnson sought a rematch in 2007 and forced Duplessis into a runoff. Though she defeated him with a slightly reduced 52% of the vote, she lost ground in most of the 9th Ward relative to her 2003 race. Two things saved her: (1) she got 59% of the vote in precincts east of Paris Road that gave her 53% in 2003 and are further along in the recovery process, and (2) because these precincts have more people who have returned, their share of the district vote increased from 8 to 13%.

What do we project the 2010 population to be for Senate District 2? In the mayor’s runoff held earlier this year, about 14,400 voted in person, while 7,800 (or a very high 35%) absentee voted. Since this was a high-profile race that garnered national attention, the 22,200 turnout suggests a current or future electorate of about 29,600. Since there are currently about 62,900 registered voters in the district, we project that the district has lost about 53% of its population (the difference between the 62,900 on the voter registration rolls and the 29,600 we think are still active voters). Furthermore, the election results from the 2006 Mayor’s race suggest a current African-American voter influence of 87% (as opposed to the 86% on the voter rolls). Interestingly, this is one of the few parts of New Orleans where the African-American voting influence has actually increased since Katrina.