Jody Amedee (D)
Term limited in 2015
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 20,969 (56%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 16,231 (44%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 24,804 (52%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 22,508 (48%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 34,234 (57%)
John Kerry (D) 25,330 (42%)
Others 775 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 29,525 (51%)
Chris John (D) 15,548 (27%)
Others 13,200 (22%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 6,984 (39%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 6,446 (36%)
Mike Francis (R) 2,085 (12%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 1,243 (7%)
Others 1,040 (6%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 26,259 (56%)
Walter Boasso (D) 7,667 (16%)
John Georges (I) 5,691 (12%)
Foster Campbell (D) 6,660 (14%)
Others 941 (2%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 19,900 (45%)
Mike Strain (R) 17,697 (40%)
Wayne Carter (R) 4,780 (11%)
Don Johnson (R) 2,338 (5%)

Historically, the River Parishes were a Democratic stronghold, due to a coalition of African-Americans and blue-collar workers employed by the numerous petrochemical plants in the area. This began to change in some areas as affluent suburban migration from Baton Rouge accelerated in the 1990s, making Ascension Parish one of the fastest growing parishes in the state.

District 18 is centered in Ascension Parish, but also includes southern Livingston Parish, St. James Parish, and the southern portion of St. John Parish. Ascension Parish, which has received a huge influx of Baton Rougeans and (more recently) relocated New Orlenians, casts 65% of the district’s vote and is trending Republican. The district’s portion of Livingston Parish is more rural and politically mixed, but has also seen some recent suburban migration, and it casts 13% of the district’s vote. St. James and St. John Parishes are heavily Democratic thanks to large concentrations of African-Americans and unionized blue collar voters and cast the remaining 22% of the vote.

Though historically this district was safe territory for populist Democrats, the suburban migration to Ascension Parish began to affect the results in national and statewide races. Mary Landrieu received 56% support in 2002 and Kathleen Blanco got 52% of the vote in 2003. Then in 2004, both George Bush and David Vitter carried the district with 57 and 51% - exactly their statewide averages. And Bobby Jindal received an impressive 56% of the vote in the 2007 governor’s race, partially due to his 62% majority in Ascension Parish.

These demographic changes have also begun to impact recent Senate races here. For years, District 18 was represented by populist Democrats Louis Lambert and Joe Sevario. Occasionally their dominance was threatened by Jeff Diez (who ran three times for the seat), but there always seemed to be enough populist votes to get them to the finish line back then.

When Lambert retired in 2003, there was a spirited race to succeed him, with several Democrats and—for the first time—serious Republicans running. Jeff Diez ran again as a Democrat and, due to a split in the Republican vote, secured a spot in the runoff against Democratic political newcomer Jody Amedee. However, Diez was hurt in the runoff by a backlash against the perceived dominance of the Diez family. This resulted in a unexpectedly narrow margin in Ascension Parish – conservative suburban precincts he should have carried substantially as the “more conservative” candidate only gave him 55% of the vote. Amedee carried St. James and St. John Parishes with about 60% of the vote, and was elected with 52% of the vote.

Though Sen. Amedee was unopposed for re-election in 2007, the heavy suburban migration (his district’s voter population increased 15% since 2003) could provide the base for a Republican challenger in the future. Especially since only 5% of the district’s new voters since his first contest have registered Democratic. We therefore see that this seat is a potential tossup in 2011.