Glenn Ansardi (R)
Term limited in 2007
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 5,539 (57%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 4,135 (43%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 5,228 (50%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 5,309 (50%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 7,366 (49%)
John Kerry (D) 7,534 (50%)
Others 91 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 6,896 (49%)
Chris John (D) 3,829 (27%)
Others 3,394 (24%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 917 (26%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 1,088 (31%)
Mike Francis (R) 375 (11%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 853 (24%)
Others 263 (8%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 4,604 (54%)
Walter Boasso (D) 1,120 (13%)
John Georges (I) 2,301 (27%)
Foster Campbell (D) 344 (4%)
Others 128 (2%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 3,305 (43%)
Mike Strain (R) 2,822 (37%)
Wayne Carter (R) 1,218 (16%)
Don Johnson (R) 380 (5%)

While the Eastbank of Jefferson Parish (Metairie and Kenner) is thought of as predominately Republican, there are precincts here and there with enough African-Americans and blue-collar voters for Democrats to be competitive. House District 92 is one of those areas. It mostly includes Kenner south of Esplanade Boulevard and its more Democratic neighborhoods around the New Orleans airport.

Demographically, the district has a voter population almost exactly what it was in 2003. Democrats have the edge here, but not overwhelmingly, thanks to its 37% African-American (up from 35% in 2003) voter population. It has supported Mary Landrieu with 57% and John Kerry with 50%. Even hometown congressman David Vitter failed to receive an absolute majority of the vote here, as he carried the district 49-27% of the vote. Interestingly, Bobby Jindal received about 10% of the African-American vote here (probably due to the Ray Nagin endorsement), and carried the district 51-49%.

Jefferson Parish voters tend to re-elect their legislative incumbents without much fuss, and this district is no exception: it has been represented since 1986 by Democrat Glenn Ansardi, who has only been opposed once (in 1991); even then, he was re-elected with 69% of the vote. Even though he is term-limited, he recently switched to the Republican Party.

Normally, term-limited legislative seats create pickup opportunities for Republicans, except in metro New Orleans, where Republicans have captured most of the winnable seats 20-30 years ago. Due to the current and future demographics of this district, we rate this district as a likely Democratic hold in 2007. However, it is worth noticing that Republican Phil Capitano was elected mayor of Kenner in 2004 by actually carrying the African-American neighborhoods – highly unusual for a Republican. And of the three candidates running, two (Michael McMyne and attorney/registered nurse Tom Willmott) are Republicans. Michael Austin is the Democratic candidate.

We see modest to impact to the population of the district due to Hurricane Katrina. Kenner received major wind damage from the storm and was “off limits” to residents for several weeks. Its airport was even used to house medical patients in the aftermath of the storm. However, Kenner and Jefferson Parish have been rebuilding in the wake of the storm, and will likely suffer minor (5-10%) population loss - so far, voter registration figures have shown a loss of about 500 voters since Katrina.