Jalila Jefferson-Bullock (D)
Term limited in 2015
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 8,390 (84%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 1,548 (16%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 7,190 (71%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 2,943 (29%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 2,677 (18%)
John Kerry (D) 12,095 (81%)
Others 178 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 2,791 (20%)
Chris John (D) 5,357 (38%)
Others 5,970 (42%)

2006 New Orleans Mayor Runoff
Mitch Landrieu (D) 4,303 (49%)
Ray Nagin (D) 4,486 (51%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 1,426 (46%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 1,102 (36%)
Mike Francis (R) 145 (5%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 160 (5%)
Others 250 (8%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 2,311 (33%)
Walter Boasso (D) 1,409 (20%)
John Georges (I) 2,802 (37%)
Foster Campbell (D) 534 (8%)
Others 132 (2%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 3,096 (50%)
Mike Strain (R) 2,257 (36%)
Wayne Carter (R) 633 (10%)
Don Johnson (R) 253 (4%)

House District 91 includes a mixture of upper and lower income neighborhoods around the Garden District and Uptown. It is a compact district that is shaped like the letter “C” and is roughly bounded by Claiborne Avenue in the north, Jefferson Avenue in the west, the Mississippi River in the south, and Felicity Street in the east.

Demographically, the district has a slight (54%) African-American majority, which is a significant decrease from 60% in 2003. The district can be thought of as containing two areas: the affluent white majority neighborhoods on either side of St. Charles Avenue, and the neighborhoods at the northern/southern ends of the district. The precincts near St. Charles Avenue contain 38% of the district’s registered voters and are about 26% African-American. The neighborhoods in the northern/southern extremities of the district cast the majority of the vote and are 72% African-American. Current and future demographic trends imply that the African-American voting majority may be in jeopardy in the future, as the St. Charles neighborhoods posted a healthy 4% increase in its number of voters, while the African-American neighborhoods lost about 6% of its voters. Overall, the district has posted a slight loss in its voter count over the last several years.

While demographically the district is about evenly balanced racially, it is politically an overwhelmingly Democratic district, as Democratic margins from the African-American precincts are augmented by white liberals residing along St. Charles Avenue. Typically, Republicans get about 20% of the vote district-wide. Bobby Jindal’s 29% of the vote was pretty good for a Republican, but even then, he ran about even in the white majority areas, while he received an impressive 10-15% of the African-American vote.

Though the African-American voting majority is tenuous, the district has been represented by female African-American Democrats for years. For 15 years until her election to an open state Senate seat in 1991, Diana Bajoie was its legislator. She was succeeded by Renee Gill Pratt, who served until her election to the New Orleans City Council in 2002. Rep. Pratt’s departure created a competitive open seat race, with Rosalind Peychaud narrowly defeating Jalila Jefferson-Bullock (Congressman Jefferson’s daughter) in the runoff with 51%. Jefferson-Bullock, however, defeated Rep. Peychaud a year later in the 2003 runoff with 58% of the vote.

Representative Jefferson-Bullock could have sought re-election to two more terms before term limits applied to her, but she is running for Diana Bajoie’s term-limited state senate seat. Eight candidates (four Democrats, a Republican, and three Independents) are running to succeed her. We rate this seat as a “Democratic hold.” What will be interesting to watch is whether the legal troubles of Congressman Jefferson (her father) affect her state senate chances. As to her House district, the question is whether the continued dilution of the African-American vote will make it possible for a white Democrat to win here. The candidates running are: attorney/art gallery owner Tony Clesi, attorney Natacha Hutchinson, Walt Leger III, Judy Bajoie-Phillips, home renovator Peter Gardner, Bob Murray, and Joseph Alfone. Clesi is the lone Republican. Hutchinson, Leger, and Bajoie-Phillips are Democrats. The remaining candidates are Independents.

Hurricane Katrina had a mixed impact on the district; because the white majority neighborhoods near St. Charles Avenue and African-American areas near the Mississippi River were on higher ground, they were spared major flooding and have gained about 200 voters since Katrina. The African-American neighborhoods in the northern part of the district, however, received a significant amount of flood water from the levee breaches, and have had a fairly significant decrease in its number of voters.

What do we project the 2010 population to be for District 91? In the mayor’s runoff held earlier this year, about 8,800 voted in person, while 1,300 (or 13%) absentee voted. Since this was a high-profile race that garnered national attention, the 8,800 turnout suggests a current or future electorate of about 11,700. Since there are currently about 24,500 registered voters in the district, we project that the district has lost about 52% of its population (the difference between the 24,500 on the voter registration rolls and the 11,700 we think are still active voters). Furthermore, the election results from the 2006 Mayor’s race suggest a current African-American voter influence of 48% (as opposed to the 54% on the voter rolls). While this reduced African-American influence would seem to hurt the Democrats, white liberals living near St. Charles Avenue will still keep the district securely in the Democratic column.