“Jim” Tucker (R)
Term limited in 2011
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 4,996 (50%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 4,932 (50%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 4,154 (39%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 6,385 (61%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 7,669 (52%)
John Kerry (D) 6,827 (47%)
Others 127 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 7,479 (53%)
Chris John (D) 3,505 (25%)
Others 3,140 (22%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 1,417 (36%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 1,552 (40%)
Mike Francis (R) 354 (9%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 411 (11%)
Others 162 (4%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 4,678 (58%)
Walter Boasso (D) 1,097 (14%)
John Georges (I) 1,777 (22%)
Foster Campbell (D) 391 (5%)
Others 70 (1%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 2,925 (39%)
Mike Strain (R) 3,262 (43%)
Wayne Carter (R) 1,044 (14%)
Don Johnson (R) 292 (4%)

One of the things worth focusing on in our analysis of open state House races in 2007 is that there are several seats in metro New Orleans that have the potential for a Democratic pickup in the future, due to changing demographics. This year, however, that turned out not to be the case.

In this regard, District 86 is almost identical to District 85 next door. However, District 86, instead of being a Jefferson Parish district centered on Gretna, is split between Jefferson and Orleans Parishes. Its Orleans Parish portion is most of the eastern Algiers section of New Orleans. The remainder and majority (55%) of the district is the Terrytown area in the Westbank of Jefferson Parish. The district itself has a Republican edge, but the Orleans Parish (Algiers) section has a slight Democratic edge. Overall, however, the district has been trending Democratic - its African-American voter population has increased from 29 to 35% since 2003, with more rapid racial change in the Orleans Parish precincts – a 9% change in four years. Population-wise, the district’s voter population has decreased 1% since the last election, with a 6% voter population loss in the Jefferson Parish precincts, and a 3% population gain in the Orleans precincts.

This demographic change has begun to affect the district’s preferences in seriously contested races. The district split almost evenly in the Landrieu/Terrell Senate race, gave Jindal a solid 61% of the vote due to African-American voter support, then gave President Bush a narrow 52-47% edge (thanks to Terrytown), while supporting Jefferson Parish based David Vitter 53-25%. Since then, “Bobby” Jindal won with a solid 58% of the vote in his 2007 race, but it’s worth noticing that this was 3% less than his 2003 performance in the district.

However, the Democratic trend has not yet registered in the district’s representation. It has elected Republicans since 1980: Terry Gee, Steve Windhorst (who defeated Gee in 1991), and Jim Tucker (who succeeded Windhorst in 2001 after he was elected judge in Jefferson Parish). And this Republican dominance has so far been unchallenged: the only contested races (in 1991 and 2001) were among Republicans. Once in the 1991 primary, a Democrat ran, but she only received 18% of the vote.

Representative Tucker is not term limited until 2011 and was re-elected without opposition this year. When his seat opens up, it’s worth examining whether the steadily increasing African-American population (as reflected by the slim margin for President Bush) and further demographic changes due to Hurricane Katrina will make this a competitive seat.

We see modest impact to the district due to the hurricanes. The district was to the west of Hurricane Katrina’s path, so it escaped much of the damage that was received to the north and east. And the district was far enough inland to have escaped the tidal surge that affected areas to the south of this district. This district did attract notice, however, in the aftermath of Katrina. Oakwood Mall (at the edge of the district in Terrytown) was looted and looters set fire to the mall. This led the Gretna police chief to seal the Crescent City Connection Bridge from New Orlenians attempting to flee the city after the storm.