Hollis Downs (R)
Term limited in 2015
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 4,728 (35%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 8,805 (65%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 6,001 (45%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 7,352 (55%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 15,223 (74%)
John Kerry (D) 5,130 (25%)
Others 269 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 13,216 (68%)
Chris John (D) 3,517 (18%)
Others 2,673 (14%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 1,800 (25%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 1,335 (19%)
Mike Francis (R) 2,984 (41%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 531 (7%)
Others 554 (8%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 8,269 (60%)
Walter Boasso (D) 1,577 (11%)
John Georges (I) 1,659 (12%)
Foster Campbell (D) 2,049 (15%)
Others 201 (2%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 4,345 (33%)
Mike Strain (R) 7,094 (54%)
Wayne Carter (R) 880 (7%)
Don Johnson (R) 814 (6%)

Lincoln Parish is one of a few parishes in Louisiana whose economy is heavily dependent on higher education, as it is home to both Louisiana Tech and Grambling universities. After the 1991 redistricting, Lincoln Parish was split in two state House districts: one district was centered on the African-American university and town of Grambling, while the other district included Louisiana Tech and the neighboring town of Ruston. This portion of Lincoln Parish, however, is only 48% of the district’s voters. The remainder (and a slight majority) of the district includes Union Parish, which is a rural but slowly suburbanizing parish to the northeast.

Overall, the district has a modest and stable 19% African-American minority and a voter population that has increased at about the statewide average in both parishes. Because Louisiana Tech has a strong technical orientation, the district’s portion of Lincoln Parish is strongly Republican and has a Republican voter registration plurality. Union Parish also leans Republican, and overall, Republicans can count on 65-75% support here. Bobby Jindal’s 55% of the vote was low for a Republican, but this was due to Blanco’s strength in the rural parishes in the 2003 runoff. However, his continual visits to north Louisiana since the 2003 loss played a large part in his share of the vote increasing from 55 to 61%, enabling him to win outright in the 2007 primary against three major opponents.

Like its neighbor to the west, District 12 had turbulent politics back in the 1980s and early 1990s, as it rejected two consecutive Democratic incumbents in 1987 and 1991. Democrat Jay McCallum, who was elected in 1991 thanks to strong support from Union Parish, then served for over a decade without opposition until he resigned his seat upon his election to a district judgeship. His retirement finally gave Republicans a chance to capture this conservative seat, and the victor, Republican Hollis Downs, only won after exceedingly close primary and runoff races against a fellow Republican. Rep. Downs was unopposed for re-election in both in 2003 and 2007.

Rep. Downs is not term-limited until 2015. The district’s recent (since 1991) tendency to support incumbents, combined with the Republican demographic edge, should favor Rep. Downs or another Republican when term-limits force him to retire.