Cedric Richmond (D)
Term limited in 2011
District Map

2002 Senate Race (Runoff)
Mary Landrieu (D) 9,775 (91%)
Suzy Terrell (R) 962 (9%)

2003 Governors Race (Runoff)
Kathleen Blanco (D) 8,980 (79%)
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 2,311 (21%)

2004 Presidential Race
George W. Bush (R) 1,660 (11%)
John Kerry (D) 14,147 (89%)
Others 71 (1%)

2004 Senate Race
David Vitter (R) 1,571 (10%)
Chris John (D) 6,733 (44%)
Others 6,921 (46%)

2006 New Orleans Mayor Runoff
Mitch Landrieu (D) 1,400 (27%)
Ray Nagin (D) 3,799 (73%)

2006 Secretary of State Race
Jay Dardenne (R) 163 (15%)
Francis Heitmeier (D) 703 (63%)
Mike Francis (R) 43 (4%)
Mary Chehardy (R) 111 (10%)
Others 85 (8%)

2007 Governors Race
“Bobby” Jindal (R) 557 (14%)
Walter Boasso (D) 986 (24%)
John Georges (I) 2,041 (50%)
Foster Campbell (D) 416 (10%)
Others 61 (2%)

2007 Agriculture Commissioner Race
“Bob” Odom (D) 2,726 (73%)
Mike Strain (R) 387 (10%)
Wayne Carter (R) 310 (8%)
Don Johnson (R) 301 (8%)

House District 101 is located in New Orleans East in an area bounded roughly by the Industrial Canal, Lower 9th Ward, Paris Road, Chef Menteur Highway, Crowder Road, and Lake Pontchartrain. It is an area that grew at a respectable 4% before Hurricane Katrina; since then, it has lost a significant number of voters, and now has 8% less voters than it did before the 2003 elections.

The solid African-American majority (89%, which is up from 86% several years ago) provides a secure base for Democrats. Republicans can only hope to get about 10% of the vote in contested statewide elections. Bobby Jindal did receive 21% of the vote, however, because Mayor Ray Nagin’s endorsement enabled him to receive a portion of the African-American vote. Without Mayor Nagin’s endorsement in 2007, his share of the vote slipped to 14%.

The district’s legislative representation has been fairly steady, with African American Democratic representation for years. Democrat Naomi White Warren (later Farve) represented the area from 1986 to 1999. She received fairly strenuous competition each time she ran, and her re-election percentages were in the 60-67% range. When she retired, Cedric Richmond was elected with 63% of the vote in the 1999 primary, then was easily re-elected in 2003 with 78% of the vote and 73% of the vote in 2007.  Representative Richmond is allowed to seek one more term after 2007.

Since District 101 was in New Orleans East, it got the worst damage, with some areas receiving up to 12 feet of water thanks to the one-two punch of storm surges from Lake Pontchartrain and a funnel of water traveling up the Intracoastal Waterway the morning of August 29. And, not surprisingly, the district has lost about 2,800 voters since Katrina.

What do we project the 2010 population to be for District 101? In the mayor’s runoff held earlier this year, about 5,200 voted in person, while 3,000 (or a very high 37%) absentee voted. Since this was a high-profile race that garnered national attention, the 8,200 turnout suggests a current or future electorate of about 10,900. Since there are currently about 23,700 registered voters in the district, we project that the district has lost about 55% of its population (the difference between the 23,700 on the voter registration rolls and the 10,900 we think are still active voters). Furthermore, the election results from the 2006 Mayor’s race suggest a current African-American voter influence of 90% (as opposed to the 89% on the voter rolls). This means the district can be expected to be reliably Democratic into the future.