The 2007 election cycle in Louisiana is a watershed year for the state because of the combined effects of term limits and the demographic changes caused by Katrina and Rita.

2007 Gubernatorial Election
2007 Legislative Elections

Background

Historically, the Deep South (particularly Louisiana) has been staunchly Democratic. In modern history, we have had only a handful of statewide elected Republicans, and a Republican was not elected governor until 1979. At that time, about 95% of the legislators were Democrats, and Democrats filled nearly every elected district, parish and municipal office, including Public Service Commission and the Supreme Court. Since then there has been a steady increase in both Republican voters and elected officials. It was not until 2004 that Louisiana sent its first Republican senator to Washington.

Beginning in the 1980’s, however, we began to see a steady increase in both Republican voters and elected officials across the Southern states. Although Louisiana voters were not as quick as their fellow Southerners to change parties, the Louisiana Republican Party began to make real gains in Louisiana during the 1990’s, electing record numbers of congressman, statewide elected officials, and legislators.  The 1990’s also saw the first Republican members of the state Supreme Court and Public Service Commission.  Spurred by an increase in Republican voter registration, and a general perception that the Democratic Party on the national level had become too “liberal” on social issues, large numbers of Louisiana Democratic elected officials officially switched to the GOP during the 90’s.

This steady stream of party switches was fueled in large part by an anti-Clinton tidal wave in the South which reached Louisiana in 1995. This tidal wave was augmented by a FBI gambling probe in 1995 at the end of the Edwards administration that helped knock off several veteran Senate Democrats like Sammy Nunez, “Sixty” Rayburn and Armand Brinkhaus. As the anti-establishment sentiment grew, more and more voters turned to the Republican Party, and more candidates began to believe that having an “R” behind their names was the key to a secure electoral future in many of Louisiana’s more conservative legislative districts.

In addition to the favorable political climate for Republicans, the initial effects of term limits in 2007 have created the potential for a massive change in both houses of the Legislature in 2007. Forty-seven House and eighteen Senate seats will be open, creating opportunities for “anti-establishment” candidates to run against the status quo.  Perhaps most significantly, term limits will provide a first time opportunity for Republicans who have avoided competing against long-time Democratic incumbents.

Many political analysts believe that 2007 is the GOP’s chance to solidify their recent gains and show once and for all that the Republican Party is competitive in Louisiana. 

The numbers certainly seem to support this belief—Democrats currently hold 35 of the 47 open House seats and 9 of the 18 open Senate seats.  Republicans rightfully see a real chance to capture a majority in the Senate, but their chances of picking up the 15 seats needed to gain control of the House are much greater.

(1) North/Central Louisiana (the Protestant parishes in that region),
(2) South Louisiana (Catholic parishes west of the Mississippi river),
(3) the River Parishes (Catholic parishes along the Mississippi with a high number of African Americans and a heavy labor vote),
(4) the Baton Rouge/Florida Parishes area (roughly the Baton Rouge media market), and (5) metropolitan New Orleans.

North/Central Louisiana
North/Central Louisiana is one of two regions of the state that will determine party control of the Louisiana House of Representatives.  Fourteen of fifteen open seats are currently held by Democrats (of these 15 districts, 11 voted 60% for George Bush in 2004). Historically, Democrats have dominated in legislative and local races throughout north and central Louisiana, although in national and statewide races, the region generally votes Republican.

South Louisiana
South Louisiana is the other region of the state that will help determine party control of the Louisiana House of Representatives. Here, 10 of 11 open seats are held by Democrats (7 of which voted over 60% for Bush last year). In past years, South Louisiana has been more staunchly Democratic that other parts of the state. During the 1970’s and 1980’s this was the electoral base of Edwin Edwards in his five runs for Governor. This Democratic base has weakened over the last decade as Republicans have become more competitive in this area in presidential, statewide, and even some legislative races.

River Parishes
The River Parishes have historically been a Democratic stronghold. They are rural and Catholic like much of South Louisiana, but with a significantly larger black and labor population. In the past decade however, suburban migration from Baton Rouge in Ascension and (to a lesser extent) West Baton Rouge, has resulted in slight gains for Republicans here.

This conflict between historical voting preferences and the preferences of newly-arrived Baton Rouge suburbanites has resulted in recent Republican victories in the legislative and parish-wide races in Ascension Parish.

Baton Rouge/Florida Parishes
The Baton Rouge area is one part of the state without a well-defined image. It is inhabited by a “gumbo” of different groups: a large black minority of all economic strata, a significant professional population, the influence of state government, the presence of academia, the religious conservative influence of several large churches, a significant Catholic minority, and a large and relatively well-paid blue-collar workforce employed by the petrochemical industry. As a result, both parties are competitive here, with Republicans’ having a slight edge. All but one of the white majority legislative seats here is currently held by a Republican.

Metro New Orleans
The New Orleans metropolitan area is unique in that it more closely resembles a Northern city than part of the Deep South. With a large labor and minority presence (of blacks, Hispanics, and Asians), and a growing gay population, the area unquestionably has a Democratic leaning. Due to the conservative nature of the city’s suburbs in St. Bernard, Plaquemines, Jefferson, St. Charles, and St. Tammany Parishes, however, Republicans, are still competitive here in federal, statewide, and local races.