Elections rescheduled

Sec. of State Jay Dardenne's recommendation that Gov. Bobby Jindal reschedule congressional primary elections to Oct. 4 changes dynamics in contests, one in a major way, and carries with it a hint of irony as well.

Dardenne maintains a four-week delay is necessary to ensure all the infrastructure for the elections assuredly will be in place. It also helps out those candidates that otherwise might have been scrambling for quick fundraising had these been postponed only a week or two, as I noted recently. Four weeks buys a couple of weeks worth of begging for money, and then allocated in the last couple of weeks instead of having no chance to raise funds for a last-week blitz that a short delay would have turned into two or three weeks.

Still, candidates lagging their fields do get helped by this, as they have nowhere to go but up with an extra 28 days. But what truly will be interesting is that the chain reaction puts party runoffs on national election day Nov. 4 if there are any (if not, the general election occurs in those contests) and then on Dec. 6 would be the general election, over a month behind the rest of the country.

This will have a dramatic impact on one House contest. The Fourth District's Republican nomination will not be settled on Oct. 4 so there will be a runoff on Nov. 4. This is to the major disadvantage of any Democrat running, although it is highly likely that their nomination will be won by next month by former Caddo District Attorney Paul Carmouche. His problem is that, in the conservative district where he has been somewhat unconvincingly been trying to place himself as a moderate, he will need strong black turnout to overcome whichever genuine conservative emerges as the GOP nominee. He would have a decent chance at that, were the general election on Nov. 4 with Sen. Barack Obama heading the Democrat ticket for president.

But on Dec. 6, this contest will be only one of two in the country (the Second District being the other as no Democrat will win the nomination outright, but whoever does will be extremely likely to win the seat on this day). There will be no black candidate topping the ticket to draw black votes to the polls on behalf of Carmouche. Worse for him, if Obama goes down to defeat the month prior, the palpable disappointment will depress black turnout even further. This …
Read More...

posted by Jeff Sadow, 3 hours, 57 minutes ago

GOP delights in Jindal's cool during crisis

Undoubtedly Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal acquitted himself well in his handling of the Hurricane Gustav crisis which led to few deaths, far fewer and with much less destruction than with Hurricane Katrina in 2005. He had help - New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin seemed to have learned lessons from his inadequate response in 2005, other local officials around the southern part of the state performed well, and Orleans-area levees appeared to be in better shape - and a little luck - Gustav was a little weaker and struck more of a glancing blow than Katrina - but management of a crisis always starts at the top so the major credit goes to Jindal.

For the moment, it strengthened his national political stature and boosted his pecking order in the Republican Party. But make no mistake, as I demonstrated last week, Jindal cannot rise any higher than second as long as the party's vice presidential nominee Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin does not self-destruct. If she wants to pursue a presidential nomination in 2012 (if she and presidential nominee Sen. John McCain fail this year or they succeed and he wants to stay for just a term) or 2016, it's hers to lose.

So far, in her mere days in the national spotlight, Palin is reinvigorating the party and promising to bring it back to its conservative roots which were responsible for the party's electoral and the country's policy successes. Realistically, her impact on people's voting decisions will not be large but it could matter in a close race. But if on her own, running for the nomination to the office, so far the returns are impressive. Jindal, for all his skills and now considering her added exposure, will not be able to compete effectively against her.

But of more immediate concern is the impact Jindal made in Louisiana with his crisis-management skills. They will serve to smooth bumps in the road of his own doing, his dithering during the last regular session over coming on board a realistic individual income tax cut and over shooting down with a near-last-minute veto an absurdly gratuitous full-time pay raise for part-time legislators. Jindal may have feared future reactions from legislators by hanging out so many of them to dry by putting them on record with this toxic vote, but there's no political ill that popularity can't cure. If as a result of this episode Jindal finds his public approval at …
Read More...

posted by Jeff Sadow, 1 day, 7 hours, 58 minutes ago

Saturday's congressional primary election on hold

Did part of Sec. of State Jay Dardenne's decision to recommend to Gov. Bobby Jindal (who took this advice of) postponing the weekend's elections come out of concern that some candidates might be differentially affected by the impact of Hurricane Gustav, as I mused recently? If so, he's not telling but that so quickly it was declared that conditions, even in places that only got a lot of rain, would be too disruptive to hold it on time was surprising.

Regardless, dynamics will be affected in two contests. Incumbent Rep. Rodney Alexander will not be affected by any delays as he will mop up any opposition whenever an election is held and incumbent Rep. Steve Scalise will do the same to whoever is opponent may be. Nor will Democrat Paul Carmouche running really be affected in the Fourth District as he is expected to win outright despite date changes. Contests that could be affected include the Republican side for that district and the Second District Democrat contest.

The chief factors that could be altered are those of momentum and money. Some candidates who may have been doing well earlier may find they were beginning to slide as time went by, so they will be unhappy at this delay, while others not making much progress will be given extra time to rectify that. Others built spending strategies based around the date; for example, a heavy ad blitz with big expenditures right before the election may have been believed to pay off with a runoff spot and momentum where more money could then be raised. But without such a reward, these campaigns now will be punished as, unless their candidates are wealthy, their coffers will be low without much ability to get ad time next week (or even the week after, as Dardenne has hinted there could be a two week or even more delay).

In the Second, the delay helps incumbent Rep. Bill Jefferson since his resources depends the least upon others. He can sink more personal wealth and use the advantages of his office during the extended period. Others will scramble to find money in a challenging environment. It also gives new life to slow-developing candidacies like those of Jefferson Parish Councilman Byron Lee and state Rep. Cedric Richmond who appear to have been languishing, providing overtime …
Read More...

posted by Jeff Sadow, 2 days, 8 hours, 22 minutes ago

Lessons learned

Politics took a welcome and needed backseat to performance as Louisiana dealt with Hurricane Gustav. But, unfortunately, only for a short time as the imperatives of historical revisionism got some Democrat females to talking.

Perhaps former Gov. Kathleen Blanco can be forgiven for asserting that the impressive display of implementation put on by the Gov. Bobby Jindal Administration was in part built on changes in emergency response started during her term. The muted credit-grabbing by current officials would have been unlikely to include her and she continues to seek rehabilitation for a reputation that, honestly and regrettably, she deserves for her mishandling of the Hurricane Katrina episode in 2005.

That is so because her reminding neglected to mention anything about "Hurricane Pam" in 2004. Few remember that because it didn't exist; it was an exercise conducted by governments coordinated by the federal government during Blanco's first year in office that history subsequently showed eerily paralleled Katrina. While it focused more on the aftermath of a storm, the associated press release also noted some things to be done in anticipation of such a storm with a quote from the Blanco Administration that "[o]ver the next 60 days, we will polish the action plans developed during the Hurricane Pam exercise. We have also determined where to focus our efforts in the future." If any of this ever was done the next year, it seemed never to have been used or was irrelevant.

A few months later, real-life Hurricane Ivan followed and, while it missed Louisiana, it again could have been a useful test run. Certainly it's good that Blanco learned from Katrina and set the stage for future administrations to profit from her experiences. But while Jindal seemed to do that, the inconvenient truth is that Blanco (and others) did not learn from the exercise or other prior opportnities given her response to events a little more than a year later, to the detriment of the state.

But it is difficult to forgive Sen. Mary Landrieu's disingenuous remarks that, aware that work on the levee system in the greater New Orleans area was incomplete, this work should have been commenced three decades ago to have it completely ready by now. Such a remark implies either Landrieu doesn't know, or refuses to admit, that work was to have started on comprehensive flood control in 1977 - only to be shot down by environmentalists Read More...

posted by Jeff Sadow, 3 days, 7 hours, 54 minutes ago

Gustav's eye closes in on Louisiana coastline

As this posting gets published, Hurricane Gustav is making landfall south of Houma, meaning high winds will come to its east and a drenching along a path to the northwest. Its track seems to indicate it will hit minimally populated, presumably evacuated areas. But wind and possible tornadoes also take their toll especially east in the Second Congressional District. How will this unfortunate scenario impact elections coming up in five days?

Its direct path appears to avoid any place with a primary election, required only for federal offices. But the 2^nd District does have its high profile Democrat primary where embattled Rep. Bill Jefferson tries to hang onto office, which at this moment almost is totally devoid of people (or at least of registered voters). Realistically and optimistically, mandatory evacuation orders won't be lifted until Tuesday, then people will start flowing back, and how many will have returned and have interest in getting to the polls on Saturday is another matter, especially if it turns out some cleanup is involved.

Had things turned out differently, this might be a moot point. Hitting the district more squarely and perhaps a couple of days later probably would have postponed the election, not only because of the general chaos but also as Baton Rouge likely would have borne more of the brunt and this would have made election administration there more difficult. As it is, it would appear an election can occur largely unimpeded.

As a result, certain candidates may be advantaged and disadvantaged. With West Bank levees perhaps the weakest and being the closest to the eye wall, the Jefferson Parish part of the district might see the most potential for damage that would distract from voting, to the presumed detriment of the single Jefferson Parish candidate in the contest parish Councilman Byron Lee. By contrast, with a New Orleans East district already largely depopulated, state Rep. Cedric Richmond will lose proportionally fewer voters from his base.

The only non-black candidate in the race, former media reporter Helena Moreno, might also accrue and electoral advantage as it is believed she will do best among white voters (Democrat and independents are allowed to vote in this primary). While they are in the minority in the district, if she corrals a large plurality of them while the black vote gets fragmented among all other candidates, this should push her into the runoff. Likely of better socio-economic status generally than black voters, these whites may be able to get onto their feet faster after all of this and be in a better position to get to the polls on Saturday.

Read More...

posted by Jeff Sadow, 4 days, 8 hours, 29 minutes ago

Palin picked as McCain VP

If your name is Gov. Bobby Jindal and if you are politically ambitious, there's good news and bad news with the pick of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as the running mate of Sen. John McCain for the presidency for the Republicans in 2008. And it's a pick Jindal perhaps inspired McCain to make.

The bad news is that should McCain win, Jindal's not likely to get a presidential nod from the party for a long time. Palin is only seven years older than Jindal and would become the prohibitive frontrunner to succeed McCain as long as she serves without controversy as vice president. Like Jindal, she is seen as a conservative reformer, family (wo)man, and also would be an atypical nominee (i.e. not white and/or male) that could pique interest and votes for the GOP. With at least four years on the national stage, if she wants it she would be difficult to stop.

Should McCain lose, Palin still provides additional competition for Jindal. Even though the record of defeated vice presidential candidates then assuming the presidency is almost exclusively bad - only Franklin Roosevelt 12 years after his second-fiddle bid in 1920 came back to win the presidency and it took the Depression to do it - in the past several decades almost every single vice presidential pick who was in current office when tapped later ended up making a run for the presidency, regardless of whether that ticket won. At the very least she almost is a sure thing to compete in the future provided she does not self-destruct politically, thereby reducing Jindal's chances of success.

The good news for Jindal is, if willing, his chances have increased to be on the national ticket in four or eight years. Palin will not try the second slot again so if Jindal wins the nomination despite her momentum, he's there on it. But if he tries and loses to Palin, unless there is a lot of acrimony in the campaign (which seems unlikely given the combination of their personalities) he would create an outstanding choice to balance the ticket with her. McCain's choosing Palin has markedly improved his status on this account.

One wonders, in fact, whether Jindal himself inspired McCain to select her - perhaps not in a way he would have desired. Palin and Jindal do have much alike and perhaps McCain at some point vacillated between the two. But what might have gotten Palin the nod (who, if you count Jindal's congressional experience, has less national experience although she started serving as governor of Alaska in 2007 and was mayor of Wasilla prior to that) …
Read More...

posted by Jeff Sadow, 1 week, 4 hours, 28 minutes ago

Officer elections splinter LSU board

To comprehend why controversy has emerged concerning the LSU Board of Supervisors over its officer elections requires understanding the very controversial function the Board was given long ago. (Technically the Board ultimately oversees me and at times like these often with chagrin as not all of its members or the system as a whole will end up agreeing with me on issues.)

In its upcoming election to be chairman-elect, one candidate being backed for months by many board members is being challenged by another who apparently is favored by the Gov. Bobby Jindal Administration. Governors appoint these members and neither member was appointed by Jindal.

This is claimed by the long-time candidate to be divisive and one of his supporters claims the entry of the other candidate and the lobbying, which he claims without verification included threats not to reappoint a member who did not vote the Administration's way, will wreck the Board with bitterness. Further, the candidate feeling aggrieved by competition sees this as an undue interference by an administration into the workings of the Board.

Three things immediately are worth noting about these claims. First, competition for an office is a healthy thing that provides opportunities for evaluation of different policies that in all likelihood strengthens the quality of the victorious program. By nature this will produce division, but it will create better policy than if consensus is allowed to play too prominent of a rule in the process. Successions that are too orderly too often have a way of perpetuating rigidity and inflexibility.

Second, a governor and/or his staff have a right to lobby for whoever they please. If they believe one candidate as opposed to another will produce policy that better helps the state, not only should they express that preference, they would be derelict in their duty not to.

Third, the Board is independent of the governor's office and the only way its members lose that is to surrender it themselves. Even if an administration in order to get its way threatened recalcitrant members with not reappointing them to the Board, one must question the motives of Board members for their service if reappointment is seen as such a prize. The first priority of any board member should be to the organization and who it represents, the people of Louisiana in this case. They are there first and foremost to serve, and you best serve by making the best decisions possible without letting an extraneous consideration such as reappointment get in the way. One must wonder if a member so highly values reappointment to allow it to exert leverage over his decisions that perhaps he is there for the wrong …
Read More...

posted by Jeff Sadow, 1 week, 1 day, 7 hours, 42 minutes ago

 

Thursday, August 28^th, 2008
Baton Rouge, Louisiana

 

 FORTY FOUR YEARS OF NATIONAL POLITICAL CONVENTIONS

 
Some 4000 delegates are converging in Denver this week, and Minneapolis next week.  Millions of voters are expected to view the televised events, which are meant to convey an image of party unity.  For political groupies like most of us who write and read these columns, this is the time the fun really begins.  And if you have never attended a party convention, even as just an interested observer, you have really missed quite a show.

My first Democratic convention was in Atlantic City in 1964.  On summer break from Tulane Law School, I was driving my twelve-year-old Volkswagen convertible up to New York City to visit relatives, and made a last minute decision to divert to Atlantic City. The Democrats were gathering in the old civic auditorium on the boardwalk, which for many years was the site of the Miss America pageant.

   I was able to park my car about half a block from the auditorium and walk right up to the front door.  A guard asked me where I was going, and I said I wanted to join the Louisiana delegation. 

 “Are you supposed to be with them?”  he asked. 

 “I sure am,” I said.  I might have exaggerated a bit, but I was still hoping to get in the door. 

“Well, then welcome to Atlantic City, and go right on in.” 

 I stood about fifty feet away from the stage where President Lyndon Johnson kept the crowd in suspense until he announced that Sen. Hubert Humphrey would be his running mate.  Johnson was a cinch to be reelected, and the Democrats pulled together as one big happy family.  What a contrast to what happened four years later. 

 In …
Read More...

posted by Jim Brown, 1 week, 1 day, 19 hours, 14 minutes ago

Obama should tackle criticism, Demos say

Sometimes one must shake his head with incredulity at the divergence between the real world and what Democrat politicians claim things actually are. Some Louisiana political figures gave us excellent examples concerning the unreal world imagined by Democrats at their national convention.

First up was former New Orleans mayor, now head of the National Urban League, Marc Morial. He opined that comments about how the party's almost presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama draw unfair criticism about him being too inexperienced to run the federal government, observing that relatively recent presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and current Pres. George W. Bush had no national political experience, so why should Obama with his eight years in the Illinois legislature and four in the Senate be considered so unseasoned, he argued.

One may forgive Morial the obvious denseness of this remark, as it was Morial the executive who more than any New Orleans mayor drove the city into the ground and whose relatives associates not yet convicted remain under criminal investigation while he fights a lawsuit accusing him of corrupt practices. His mentioned chief executives actually ran a government and each accomplished significant things during their six to 12 years in office. Obama has no such experience and has not one significant legislative accomplishment in any office. Even his putative Republican opponent Sen. John McCain can claim over two decades in the Senate with some significant (if not always the wisest) policy accomplishments and committee leadership, as well as executive experience in the military. Morial must never embark upon a career as a fruit salesman because he clearly doesn't know the difference between apples and oranges.

But there's more from this buffoon. He then chides the media for not bringing up this point (which no doubt they avoid to prevent themselves from looking stupid) and even implies the media is in some sense biased against Obama because they don't "bring a little perspective" to the charge. If he believes this, he truly lives in a fantasy world as media perceived and displayed favoritism for Obama in the campaign has been documented time and time again.

Then almost on cue we have confirmation of, if not Obama favoritism at least sympathy towards Democrats in general or perhaps more specifically Sen. Mary Landrieu, when the New Orleans Times-Picayune's …
Read More...

posted by Jeff Sadow, 1 week, 2 days, 7 hours, 44 minutes ago

Landrieu speech raises profile
(The Advertiser)

DENVER - U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu addressed the Democratic National Convention on Tuesday, telling fellow delegates that "America deserves a FEMA that works."
Advertisement

Landrieu was one of eight Senate Democratic women to speak in a run-up to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's speech.

The women were featured, in part, to mark the 88th anniversary of the ratification of the 19th Amendment that granted women the right to vote.

Landrieu of New Orleans reminded delegates that it's been three years since hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the Gulf Coast and that the Federal Emergency Management Agency is not up to the task of responding to another major disaster.

"America deserves a president who is willing to cut through the red tape and serve the people, not the bureaucracy," Landrieu said. "That is the hope of the people of America, and that is the promise of Barack Obama."

Obama should tackle criticism, Demos say
(Times-Picayune)

DENVER -- Former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial says he was struck on the opening night of the Democratic National Convention by how often TV pundits suggested that Sen. Barack Obama's lack of experience could cost him votes against Republican John McCain.

Morial, in a talk to Louisiana delegates Tuesday, said the comments "got in my craw," not because they were shots at the presumptive Democratic nominee but because they were missing perspective.

Three of the past five presidents, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, had no national experience and far less experience than the opponents they defeated, Morial said.

Morial and other Democrats say the Obama campaign needs to aggressively confront these kinds of issues as they are raised by Republicans and the news media.

On the experience issue, Morial, who as president of the National Urban League does not endorse candidates, said Obama and his supporters need to insist that the media "bring a little perspective" to their coverage of the issue.

 

Mith Landrieu to ring Nasdaq Bell

Read More...

posted by Chase S., 1 week, 2 days, 7 hours, 53 minutes ago