Carmouche plans to apply for recount

Democrat candidate Paul Carmouche for Louisiana's Fourth Congressional District is of a mind to ask for a recount of the results from last Saturday's contest with Republican Dr. John Fleming, where Fleming came out 356 votes ahead. The way the numbers are, it is the equivalent of coming into the last hole of a golf tournament in second place trailing the clubhouse leader by four shots on a par 5 hole.

At least this is according to national Republican officials, who sent out information Monday about what a recount would entail. Important to note is that the only recounting done is for ballots not counted electronically. Excluded are paper ballots courtesy of early voting procedures by mail, which since they are counted by a scanner typically have a very low error rate. All other ballots are electronically cast and could be recounted only if there is some verified irregularity revealed when they are "opened" tomorrow. (See here for an excellent front-line explanation of what gets counted.)

Therefore, the only place where Carmouche could make up ground would be with provisional ballots - those cast because an election commissioner had reason to believe the voter was registered but for whatever reason was not recorded as being registered to that precinct - and any challengeable spoiled ballots. There are only 36 verified of the former and 171 of the latter (and perhaps an additional 10 potentially spoiled).

But there could be many more provisional ballots in each precinct box containing information from the voting machines. A general rule of thumb from national statistics is that one percent of the total cast end up as provisional, meaning 926 in this case (although Republican operatives estimate there may only be about 200). Further, other rules of thumb indicate that only half of provisional ballots are verified and half of spoiled ballots are reintroduced and declared valid.

If these numbers hold - 463 provisional and 181 spoiled - Carmouche would really have to pull a rabbit out of his hat to win with these. Even if he got 50 percent greater than Fleming on each set (such as a 75/25 split) that's only 322 votes he makes up. He would have to capture close to 80 percent of the votes (assuming voting machine tallies check and no errors made in tallying already-processed paper ballots which all would have to be non-randomly in his favor) in order to pull ahead.

That seems very improbable given the closeness of the contest. Of course, a higher number of provisional ballots discovered would decrease the margin necessary to win, as would more of them …
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Voter apathy, confusion led to Jefferson's loss, expert says

Analysis shows the reason why Rep. Bill Jefferson lost a chance at a tenth term, even if it might have been attenuated, was his black voting base abandoned him at his time of need while disproportionately more non-black voters showed up to give Republican Anh "Joseph" Cao enough margin to knock Jefferson off.

It's fascinating to review the 91 precincts in the Second Congressional District that have at least 95 percent black majorities with fewer than 2.5 percent whites in them over the Oct. 4 Democrat primary, the Nov. 4 nomination runoff, and the Dec. 6 general election. In this time period they averaged 61,477 registrants or about a sixth of the district's voters, and it's no surprise that almost all of them in all three contests returned 95 percent-plus majorities for black candidates (several in the first election, Jefferson in the remaining two). Indeed, in the general election Jefferson swept every vote in 10 of them, while Cao was shut out in another 7.

The problem for Jefferson was, too few of them voted in the general election compared to the others. Turnout in October was only a little under 17 percent in these districts, but swelled to over 37 percent in November. But in December, it plunged to just under 12 percent. In numerical terms, the drop from October to December was over 3,000. Considering that Jefferson would have gotten at least 95 percent of this vote and he lost by 1,826 votes, even a turnout level, all other things equal, matching October's would have brought him the victory by about 1,000 votes.

Why did turnout fall so incredibly? One clue is to look at the October election's other contests and compare it to other contests on the ballot. Comparing precincts, there wasn't a whole lot of difference between the sum total of votes received in the Second District primary and those for other local contests. Important to remember is that Republicans could vote in these other local races, but they comprise only about 11 percent of the district's total. In other words, in a contest where a range of choices besides Jefferson was available, turnout was roughly equivalent to other contests on the ballot, meaning few of those voting were there only to vote on local races and rolled off on the congressional contest.

Therefore, if all other things were equal, turnout should have been close in December to October levels in these precincts. Instead, it dropped five percent. This would appear to indicate that some who voted in October did not vote in December because their choice was either a damaged Democrat in Jefferson or non-Democrats. Rather than be forced to …
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Anh "Joseph" Cao beats Rep. William Jefferson in 2nd Congressional District

One would have thought that Anh "Joseph" Cao had as good a chance as anyone to turn the majority-black Louisiana Second Congressional District into a Republican seat, at least for two years. He has a rag-to-riches background, faced an indicted incumbent the evidence concerning which was particularly toxic, and had the good fortune for the election to occur in the optimal electoral environment that would attract disproportionately his supporters compared to those of his opponent's, Democrat incumbent Rep. Bill Jefferson.

But early voting totals seemed to dispel the notion of an upset, combined with the insistence by a large portion of the district's black voters that comprise 62 percent of the total electorate that when it comes to voting, the absolute necessary condition for any candidate to be eligible to receive a vote is that he is black. For Cao to have any chance of winning, he had to draw disproportionately from Republicans, mainly whites. Early voting indicators showed that wasn't going to happen. As these results tipped off an overall low turnout, this would have helped Cao only if whites had disproportionately shown up then (signaling the same was likely to occur on Saturday). Instead, the ratio of white-black-other-race turnout was pretty close to the district's overall ratio.

And yet, Cao pulled off the biggest upset of the 2008 election campaign. I'll need more time to scan the precincts to give a definitive answer, but two things seemed obvious. First, turnout for the election was just 70 percent of the Democrat/independent-only primary total on Nov. 4 - now about 50,000 Republicans would get a say and looked to ahev turned out disproportionately. Second, while some of the super-black-majority precincts in Orleans (95 percent-plus black registration) had decent turnouts of 20 percent, other turnouts were microscopic - heavily Jefferson, but less than 5 percent. Even a 10 percent turnout in these might have been enough to win Jefferson the election.

Just a couple of days ago, rhetoric such as this was emanating from Jefferson supporters:

"They're trying to disenfranchise us, trying to convince us that it's a wasted vote to go on Saturday and pull the lever for a man who we know is ours," said the Rev. Samuel Butler, who organized the news conference [Thursday supporting Jefferson]. He didn't elaborate on how he believes Republicans are trying to accomplish [that].

"This district means a lot to us because it was really created ... for the blacks to have representation," …
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Cazayoux ousted after just six months

One reason why Louisiana Democrats are becoming an endangered species in the state is they would rather shoot the messenger than comprehend the message. The party's reaction that led to Rep. Don Cazayoux's failed reelection bid only demonstrates this and may explain why they are about to let another congressional seat slip from its grasp..

There is a standard Democrat playbook to try to win these seats in the South where solid white conservative majorities exist: get white candidates who can sound conservative on social issues, and take the black vote for granted. As compared to a candidate, black or white, who always unabashedly will vote liberal, this kind of candidate can be relied upon by the party leadership to do so much of the time and has much improved chances of winning since casual voters will be fooled into thinking he is more conservative.

But for this to work, black Democrats have to cooperate. In all, with this kind of candidate they still will get a majority of what they want in policy terms. However, it discriminates against black candidates who find it more difficult to hide their liberalism because, as long as party officials think the district is competitive or there is no other alternative, they will prefer the white candidate. The problem Cazayoux encountered was state Rep. Michael Jackson tired of this condition of servitude in the party, and when narrowly defeated by Cazayoux in the nomination for the special election, struck out on his own as an independent in the regular election.

Jackson did so because he felt slighted by regular power brokers in the party. He had good reason to feel so. Comparing donors to the special election campaigns, a flood of money from Democrat-supporting interest groups and a who's-who of prominent white Democrats in the state gave to Cazayoux, while Jackson got little in the way of these PAC contributions, from individuals most money came from blacks, and of whites more (although still a fraction of Cazayoux's total receipts) actually came from Republicans. And while the party in terms of giving remained neutral until after Cazayoux secured the nomination (and then it threw everything it had to him), it is incredibly hard to believe that it was coincidental that the traditional big donors to the party's candidates would not almost exclusively line up behind Cazayoux if there wasn't some tacit, perhaps even unspoken, directive from party leaders to support Cazayoux because he better fit the playbook.

There was a good case that the party could have supported Jackson over Cazayoux as a winner in …
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Thursday, December 3^rd, 2008

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL

HEALTHWISE IN LOUISIANA

Louisiana has the dubious honor of being named this week as the least healthiest state in the nation.  The negative recognition was announced in the 2008 health rankings just released by United Health Foundation. It really wasn’t any surprise.  That’s because the state has held the bottom sport for fifteen of the past eighteen years.  Every now and then, the Bayou State slips up to 49^th.  But it again has fallen to the bottom of the barrel.

There was an assumption that Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal would make healthcare reform and expansion his top priority when first coming into office.  After all, he had cut his political teeth as Louisiana’s healthcare czar in his late 20s when former Gov. Mike Foster taped him to head up the massive bureaucracy of the Department of Health and Hospitals.  After Foster left office, Jindal headed to Washington at the behest of former La. US Senator John Breaux to direct a major health care commission.  But since taking office as Governor, Jindal has downplayed healthcare as a front burner issue.

Jindal’s pick to head up the state health agency, Alan Levine, was brought in from Florida with the task of both expanding and improving the present delivery system.  But the financial dragon of continuing cost increases has caused him to play defense, with little chance to be proactive in widening the health delivery net to over one million Louisianans who don’t qualify for Medicaid, yet cannot afford health insurance under the present system.

Last week, Levine spoke publicly about financial woes enwrapping the system, and called his headaches the “Four Horseman of the Healthcare Apocalypse. His list included the …
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Congressional candidates square off

With the reelection of Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss yesterday, only one probable competitive federal contest remains to complete election cycle 2008, in Louisiana's Fourth Congressional District (while by no means impossible, Rep. Bill Jefferson is not likely to lose in the state's Second District). Chambliss' win gives clues as to the winner between Republican physician/businessman John Fleming and Democrat former First District Attorney Paul Carmouche.

Fleming has run as a solid conservative from the start in this conservative district, while Carmouche has tried to do the same despite his party label that won president-elect Barack Obama all of 39 percent of the vote in the district. Citing his prosecutorial background and constantly articulating social conservative views, Carmouche has bent over backwards to argue he can work for a liberal taskmaster such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (who dropped in during the campaign to help him raise money) yet somehow reflect conservative values in his representation.

It is the preferred strategy by non-incumbent Southern Democrats, trying to appear conservative on a few issues to "inoculate" themselves against charges that they largely will serve liberal interests. But it's wearing thin, as results across the South showed in November, and in December now (the election pushed back here because of Hurricane Gustav-induced difficulties) odds are it will come a-cropper on Carmouche.

Two dynamics are at work here, both because this is an election outside the normal election day: that disproportionately better-informed voters will show up at the polls, and that there is no one at the top of the ballot which with Obama in November served to give an extra boost to Democrats. Reviewing the first consideration, more casual voters are less likely to vote this time out than in November, and these voters are typically less informed and therefore less likely to grasp the contradictions of the Carmouche candidacy.

For example, despite the fact that pro-abortion forces such as Pelosi have rallied to the aide of Carmouche, he says he's pro-life and implies he'd vote that way on legislation addressing that in Congress. But more informed voters doubt that he would. One thing that Obama is likely to do is relaxing the current presidential order that funds not be given to international groups that advocate and perform abortions, so the next budget passed by Congress could include that kind of funding. So Carmouche really is going to stand …
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Managed health care plan unveiled for state's poor

Battle lines continue to be drawn over Louisiana's reform for its indigent care. Four separate ideas currently circulate, but only one will work both in political terms and in achievement of quality care done more efficiently. But the political side of the equation already has ruled out one alternative, and threatens this other one as well.

Essentially, the state's fee-for-service Medicaid system that encourages providers, often government itself, to bill away with little regard for cost containment or efficiency, continues to devour more and more resources. The state faces the central problem of having to pay for nearly a third of these costs which, except for elementary and secondary education as a whole, is the single largest programmatic expenditure of the state. Reform promises to control these costs without deterioration, if not actual improvement, of service provision.

Gov. Bobby Jindal's Secretary of Health and Hospitals Alan Levine has come up with a plan that would take the indigent and allow their placement into various insurance pools run by the private sector, which would negotiate rates with providers. It is hoped that, in the long run, this would introduce efficiencies into the system that would allow for more coverage at the same or reduced cost. Theoretically, it could allow for higher reimbursement rates than now exist to encourage more providers into the Medicaid system and to discourage essentially unnecessary expenditures that currently must be paid for either because of lack of coordination or because providers want to increase their revenues.

This is a plan similar to that Levine introduced when he served as head of Florida's health care, and the initial returns on that are encouraging. The main problem seems to be raising awareness of the indigent about the program and their options, but despite higher per person administrative costs (because only 10 percent of the indigent population has been allowed to participate), at least for now its expenditures are running below budgeted levels (outcome changes have yet to be assessed).

But this idea has its detractors. The Louisiana State Medical Society has proposed a system where the poor are given vouchers to purchase medical care, where Jindal's system would interpose an intermediary. While this proposal might have trouble holding costs down unless providers are fully subjected to market forces, it probably would lower administrative costs without an intermediary. However, practically speaking this would be a nonstarter in Louisiana as it completely cuts out government and too many politicians simply don't want to do that.

Another suggestion from other sources has been to adopt a system such as in …
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Bossier council gives initial nod to 2009 budgets

There seems to be trouble brewing in paradise, better known to elected officials and political insiders there as Bossier City, as a couple of their own seem to be straying off the reservation. If only it could be that over the thunderous din arising from politicians’ incessant patting themselves on their own backs that more of these voices asking for a reality check could be heard – and one which voters might be well advised to assist.

Over the past month, Bossier City got presented with another quantum growth in the size of city government. Commonly known is that long before it became fashionable courtesy of the president-elect to preach of “investing” in government, Bossier City has practiced it -- $56.5 million on an arena that historically loses operating funds, not even considering opportunity and indirect costs; $21 million for a parking garage for private developers that will not be paid off in added tax receipts for decades, if ever; and the latest, $35 million to a cyberspace startup with little chance much of the government spinoff business on which it was breathlessly predicated ever will come this way.

Less well known is that in its operating expenses the city has been profligate. From 1998 through 2007, spending in its three major areas outside of debt have mushroomed – public safety being the largest area with the most growth of over 88 percent, general government up nearly 60 percent, and culture and recreation nearly 225 percent (over all of these three which make up over 90 percent of recurring non-debt related expenditures the increase is 89 percent). This has been reflected by the number of employees added by the city over that time, rising by nearly a quarter, with dozens more added to the payroll this year and 16 more asked for next year.

To add insult to injury, spending recently has begun to outstrip revenues, forcing the city to dip into its reserves. For the general fund, which is where the majority of tax collections go, its projected cushion would be only $4 million, down 70 percent in just three years. This got the attention of Democrat Councilman Don “Bubba” Williams and independent Councilman Jerome Darby, who wondered about the prudence of the latest budget which has increased general fund spending almost 14 percent in just the past two years.

One could argue that the cost of living could account for some of this increase. But the producer price index increased only a little under 39 percent during these 10 years, meaning Bossier City spending increased at a rate over twice as fast. And even giving a pass on increased public safety spending, the fact remains other …
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GOP looks to young Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal as its own version of Obama

Wonder why the media have been looking at Republican presidential contenders for three years, 11 months from now, and paying quite a bit of attention to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal? The push on to make him the frontrunner way in advance has more to do with the left's agenda than covering a good horse race.

Ever since Jindal succumbed to the electoral politics bug, liberals have recognized the danger he presents to their agenda. Jindal does not apologize for his conservatism but neither does he come off as much of an ideologue; he articulates it well both at a philosophical level but also in terms that demonstrate its superiority to the typical citizen; and, worst of all from the liberal perspective, his life to date explodes the myths of racism and upper-class warfare that liberals desperately want to con Americans into thinking, particularly when it comes to conservatives and Republicans.

The only missing ingredient that could make Jindal a virulent political force against liberalism, now with its most complete control over policy-making at the federal level in history, is a sustained record of success in governance. A candidate with this quality not only would win a decision in 2012 over president-elect Barack Obama, given that Obama appears at this point not be to wavering from his stated agenda, but would score a Reaganesque knockout of Democrats and liberals.

Smart liberals know two things, that if they really do try to implement their agenda they are going to make quite a mess of things principally economically, and that they cannot allow conservative candidates with credibility who effectively communicate the flaws and internal contradictions of liberalism contrasted to conservatism to emerge to point out the problems the undiluted Obama agenda is sure to bring. As things go sour on many fronts, they have to be able to distort and to distract to deflect the public from making this realization.

If Jindal can establish a good governing record to go along with superior communication, liberals lose. They can't do much about the communication aspect, but they can try to frame Jindal's record. And this is where the media, who will provide many willing, if not eager, allies, can come into play.

By focusing on Jindal now, they want to be there every step of the way to control the public's image of him. This is a longer-term version of the tactic utilized against Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in the wake of her vice presidential nomination, where because of the …
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LSU-VA shared hospital site is affirmed

Yesterday I referred to the final site selection for the new Medical Center of Louisiana - New Orleans as a "minor victory" for the state, because while it had gotten a commitment from the federal government to provide the money-saving option of intertwining it with a new Veterans' Administration hospital, controversial work remains to be done that could delay the opening of the advertised state-of-the-art facility past its scheduled opening date of 2013 - perhaps way past then.

First, there's the matter of the historical structures located in the district, bordered by Canal, S. Claiborne, Tulane, and S. Rocheblave. Only as an extreme last resort could these be molested, so either they must be incorporated into the new facilities and/or campus, or moved. But there are nearly 200 such structures and only $400,000 budgeted for removal, at just $20,000 each. If preservationists and owners are successful in getting, by government acquiescence or judicial fiat, more money to move more things, costs could skyrocket and slow the building down tremendously.

(As practical matters go, the Deutsches Haus should be built around and allowed to operate unmolested, even subsidized, as long as the medical staff frequent it only on their off hours and well before their next shift begins. Better than sending them across the way to the unpredictability of a reconstituted Nick's Bar, where, if the campus is planned right, parking might actually improve. Most importantly, if done right, parking for the Canal Street parades could improve as well and the city could make a little money from those tired of driving all around Mid-City hours before a parade to find a parking spot leaving an inch of space on both end and a 1 percent chance either it'll get sideswiped or washed by desperate paradegoers).

Second, there's a question of state financing because, even with a somewhat downsized version of the Big Charity hospital component, the state is expecting a good portion of its funding allotment to come from reimbursement for damage to Big Charity by the 2005 hurricane disasters that would approximately halve the cost of the state facility for Louisiana. But the federal government - not unreasonably - has asserted that Big Charity's condition was so run down by the state's neglect that storm damage did little to deliver the coup de grace and has to date offered a figure about 5 percent of the state's request. That seems to have been sextupled in informal negotiations but still would leave the state searching for nearly $350 million more in very tight budgetary times - and all of this will delay things.

Third, Sen. David VitterRead More...